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Port traffic to see slower growth over next five years, says Crisil
Lower coal imports to drag rates to 3-5%; the previous 5 years saw 4.4% growth
The containerised cargo segment will cushion port traffic growth in the next five years as coal, the mainstay until last fiscal, has been logging a slower pace of growth, Crisil Research said in a report.
“Port traffic is estimated to log a compound annual growth of 3-5% in the five years through fiscal 2022, a notch down from 4.4% in the last five years,” it said.
‘Rise in coastal traffic’
The moderation would be mainly due to coal. In the last five years, port traffic growth was led by a surge in coal imports, especially at non-major ports. In the next five years, coal traffic is expected to remain flattish as an increase in coastal traffic due to increased production is offset by a corresponding fall in imports, according to the research report.
The report pegged container traffic growth, in contrast, at 6-8%, riding on improvement in export-import trade in sectors including chemicals and automotives and ancillaries. Incremental container traffic from upcoming terminals at the Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust terminal, Vizhinjam, Ennore and Dhamra are expected to further augment growth.
“Over the five years through fiscal 2022, as container traffic growth out-paces other segments, its share in total traffic handled at Indian ports is expected to increase to 19%, from 16% now,” Prasad Koparkar, senior director, Crisil Research, said. “Coal, which accounts for 22% of total traffic, is expected to see a dip in share to about 19%,” he said.
