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5 ways how Gujarat election 2017 is strikingly similar to 2015 Bihar poll

Gujarat and Bihar polls have some common similarities, right from development plank to caste factor and derailed discourse. But will results will also be the same?  

HIGHLIGHTS

  • As in Bihar, poll narrative in Gujarat changed from development to bizarre issues.
  • Caste and community combinations play a major role in both states.
  • Will Gujarat also go Bihar way?

After the BJP-led NDA government came to power at the Centre in May 2014, the party has faced several elections. Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh Assembly elections are the latest of them.

Among the polls the BJP contested in the first three years of coming to power, it won most of them, it formed government in Goa and Manipur despite failing to be the single largest party and it lost three (Delhi, Bihar and Punjab).

The states the BJP won include Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Assam, Maharashtra, Haryana and Jharkhand. Albeit in a post-alliance, it also succeeded in forming government for the first time in Jammu and Kashmir.

If the just-concluded Gujarat Assembly election is compared with the polls in all these states, Bihar comes closest to it and these are the reasons why.

IGNITION

Both the Bihar and Gujarat Assembly elections started on the development plank. In Bihar, Prime Minister Narendra Modi enumerated the works his government had accomplished in 18 months. He also shared the roadmap of the NDA government.

Similar in Gujarat. The run up got off to a perfect start. Both PM Modi and BJP president Amit Shah pointed out the growth index, pulling out all development statistics.

DEGENERATION

However, soon the political discourse in both Bihar and Gujarat degenerated into anything but development talk.

In Bihar, the narrative could not have stooped lower. It went down to DNA analysis after Modi made a remark on Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar‘s political DNA.

The supporters of Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar started sending samples of their hair and nails to the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) to get them tested.

In Gujarat, the verbal duel deteriorated to the Congress launching personal attacks on PM Modi. He was called a ‘tea-seller’ and a “neech aadmi”.

Congress president-elect Rahul Gandhi too was attacked with questions being raised about his religion. The opposition party retorted and claimed that the Nehru-Gandhi scion is a “janeu-dhari” (sacred thread wearing) Hindu.

Sad it may sound, but the Congress in order to buttress their claim even released pictures of Rahul Gandhi wearing the janeu during cremation of his father Rajiv Gandhi.

The Congress took strong exception to PM Modi attack on his predecessor Manmohan Singhand former vice-president Hamid Ansari over their alleged meeting with Pakistani envoy without informing the concerned authorities just before the Gujarat election.

This too was one of the nadir points of the just-concluded election in the western state.

OUTSIDERS

A key element of the Gujarat and Bihar elections was the fight between “outsiders” and “local leaders”. In Bihar, Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad-led RJD sought to turn the election into a “Baahri (outsiders) versus Bihari” fight. They attacked Modi and Shah for being outsiders.

In Gujarat the prime minister played the “Son of the soil” card quite often. His target was Rahul Gandhi who spearheaded the Congress campaign against the ruling BJP.

CASTE

Gujarat is like Bihar when it comes to caste politics. The 14 per cent swing caste plays an important role in both the states. While the Yadavs play a decisive role in Bihar, Patels do the same in Gujarat and both constitute about 14 per cent of the population in their respective state.

The caste and community groupings in the two states are also worth the mention. In Bihar the JD(U)-RJD-Congress Mahagathbandhan weaved a winning combination of Mahadalits, Muslims and Yadavs.

In Gujarat, the Congress, which largely went for a caste-based politics, created the PaKsh (Patels and Kshatriyas) alignment.

Talking about the past, the then chief minister Madhavsinh Solanki, father of incumbent Gujarat Congress president Bharatsinh Solanki, had crafted the KHAM formula in 1985. The acronym stood for Kshatriyas, Harijans (now called Dalits), Adivasi (tribal population) and Muslims.

This formula made the Patidars redundant. It accrued huge dividends to the Congress in the short run. Under Solanki’s leadership, the party won 149 of the 182 seats in the 1985 polls.

But Solanki’s move alienated the Patidars forever. The BJP went on to win the 1995 elections with the help of Patidars who shifted their allegiance to it. Keshubhai Patel, a Patidar, was anointed as the first BJP chief minister after the polls.

CM CANDIDATE

In both Bihar and Gujarat, the ruling parties declared their chief ministerial candidates. In Bihar incumbent Chief Minister Nitish Kumar was the Mahagathbandhan’s face while in Gujarat sitting CM Vijay Rupani was declared as the BJP’s face.

However, the BJP always hyphenated Deputy Chief Minister Nitin Patel’s name with that of Rupani to woo the Patels and Patidars.

On the other hand, the rivals in both the states skipped naming a chief ministerial candidate. The BJP and Congress did away with announcing their chief ministerial candidate in Bihar and Gujarat respectively

WINNER

Apart from the striking similarities in the two states, the incumbent JD(U) retained power in Bihar while the ruling BJP has been declared the favourites to win in Gujarat by all exit polls conducted on the second and last day of polling on December 14.

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