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India triumphed in the Kargil war 23 years ago. Experts claim those circumstances are no longer valid

According to experts, Pakistan has an incentive to respond "more violently" and "concentrate on substantial targets" in the event of a future conflict with India following the 2019 Balakot attack. However, there will also be a significant impact from economic, diplomatic, and geopolitical forces.

New Delhi: The Kargil conflict continues to teach the defence and strategic community valuable lessons over 23 years after Indian troops defeated Pakistani soldiers after a nearly three-month-long combat on the snowy mountaintops.

Indian historians, journalists, and defence experts have learned a number of lessons from the fight, including the necessity to increase surveillance and intelligence capabilities and to be on the lookout for “Pakistani recklessness.” In 2020, following Chinese incursions along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in eastern Ladakh, similar debates returned to the public sphere.

But some analysts think that in the previous 20 years, things have altered. They are putting out a fresh justification to contend that the factors and circumstances that rendered the Kargil conflict “restrained” or “limited” in 1999 are no longer relevant. Pakistan now has a “incentive” to respond more forcefully in the event of a future crisis as a result of the 2019 Balakot attack, they added.

While Pakistan did not strengthen its position in the Kargil battle, it retaliated after the Balakot strikes, according to Arzan Tarapore, a South Asia research expert at Stanford University who worked for 13 years in the Australian Defense Department.

Should there be another crisis, he continued, “Pakistan has an incentive to react more forcefully next time.”

According to Lt Gen Rakesh Sharma (Retd), Distinguished Fellow at the Vivekananda International Foundation and Centre for Land Warfare Studies, Pakistan “will focus on finding substantial targets” as a response option in the event of a future crisis, in contrast to what occurred following the Balakot strike.

It will be necessary given the Pakistan Army’s reputation and public pressure.

“I undoubtedly anticipate Pakistan to respond, but it might not be a’strong’ response; rather, it might be a calculated one. After Balakot, a Pakistani plane flew over India and detonated a bomb close to an ammunition storage at Narian, which is close to the Jammu-Rajouri National Highway. However, they did no harm, he claimed.

He stated that Pakistan is not economically prepared to enter a war.

Its economy is in trouble. Inflation today is roughly two times higher than it was in 1999. Additionally, a bailout from the IMF was just approved. According to him, Pakistan is not economically ready for a conflict to break out.

Geopolitics and Diplomacy’s roles
Arguments have been made regarding whether or not nuclear proliferation, despite being deadly, can contribute to greater regional stability, as evidenced by the apparent restraint shown by India and Pakistan in the Kargil conflict. However, Tarapore contends that Kargil is insufficient support supporting that.

“We must keep in mind that, in 1999, Pakistan and India most likely lacked an operational nuclear capacity. They may not have had nuclear munition available despite testing nuclear weapons, Tarapore claimed.

According to him, India was restrained by the need to avoid crossing the Line of Control.

He told ThePrint that “now, of course, the nuclear capability on both sides is very much operational.”

A serving military official who wished to remain unnamed further noted that geopolitical circumstances would affect both nations’ military responses in any future crises and that India and Pakistan’s standing in the international community had altered significantly since 1999.

He told The Print that geopolitical positions and military prowess both play a role in predicting how a future crisis between India and Pakistan might play out. India was under fire from the world community in 1999 as a result of its nuclear test criticism. It was under pressure to demonstrate restraint and establish itself as a trustworthy nuclear power in Kargil.

He claimed that even though India now supports the US against China and is a member of the Quad, it continues to acquire cheap Russian oil.

According to him, India has found a diplomatic “sweet spot.” In contrast, Pakistan is viewed suspiciously by the West, particularly after the Taliban took over. Therefore, geopolitical variables will also have a significant influence on both parties’ military strategy and level of response in the event of a future confrontation, he continued.

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