Analysis: Why Gujarat voted the way it did

Through much of travel within Gujarat in the last two months there has been one refrain that has rung out, “Congress is fighting well but BJP will form the government.”

Monday’s results in Gujarat has conformed to that view, with the Congress having improved on its 2012 tally, but still resigned to being the Opposition in the State. While counting is still on and the final tally not yet declared, there are some very clear reasons why the elections went the way they did.

The Modi factor

The electoral victory of the BJP reinforces that Prime Minister Narendra Modi remains the most potent weapon in its armoury. As the BJP’s attempts to take on the Opposition campaign narrative appeared to be flailing, Prime Minister Modi’s blistering campaign in every district of the State, 34 rallies in 15 days and the reinforcement of his connect with the people of Gujarat was an important factor. While a lot of heat was raised by some of the campaign rhetoric, especially with regard to former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, Mr. Modi’s was successful in intervening in the campaign at the most crucial juncture.

As one senior BJP leader said, “There are four stages of an electorate being being upset with you. Stage one, is that the person is upset but will still vote for you. Stage two is that he/she is upset and may consider an alternative but still vote for you, the third that an the upset voter will stay home, the fourth that the upset voter will vote against you no matter the alternative. In Gujarat we were in the middle of the second and third stage and it was Prime Minister Modi who made the critical difference of winning our voters back.”

Early signs and micro management

The formidable electoral machinery of the BJP was in top form in these polls. By June the party had “completed” its booth committees (a committee is considered complete if it consists of 21 members). These were sub-divided into panna pramukhs (page in-charge) of a 48 voters in a particular constituency. A total of 7,500 people were deployed for this and, according to Madhya Pradesh Minister Narottam Mishra who had been in-charge of 26 seats in Saurashtra, BJP Chief Amit Shah spoke to each of these panna pramukhs. “For the party’s national president to call and speak personally to a panna pramukh is a big deal,” he told The Hindu.

Self goals by Congress

The statement by senior Congressman Mani Shankar Aiyar using the word “neech” (low) in the middle of the campaign gave a golden opportunity to the BJP to turn the focus of the narrative on Mr. Modi’s humble origins and his self-made political career.

Hardik Factor

After the dust and din of the polls die down, the BJP will have to make a realistic assessment of the Hardik Patel phenomenon. The Congress was able to make inroads in the Kutch-Saurashtra belt and that is a matter of worry for the party. Senior BJP leaders admitted that an assessment will be made.

On the other hand, the BJP leading ahead in all 16 seats in Surat, the hub of grievances against the GST, shows that it was not a factor in these polls.

A miss is as good as a mile

The BJP, however, is elated at having registered a sixth straight win in Gujarat. “This is our sixth straight win in Gujarat and it is a big victory for the party. To beat a five term anti-incumbency is not a small thing,” said BJP general secretary Kailash Vijayvargiya. “It is a victory against the casteism propagated by the Congress and a victory for development,” he added.

For the Congress, however, there were consolations in the loss, gaining ground in Gujarat, and worries abound as the inevitability of a BJP victory as the party now rules 19 States seems more and more of an electoral factor.