News Analysis: How the TDP-BJP marriage of convenience broke

When Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N. Chandrababu Naidu decided to forge a pre-poll alliance with the BJP in the summer of 2014, his expectation was that the BJP-led NDA would extend all-out help to a State that was hived off unwillingly leaving it to fend for itself after an “unscientific bifurcation”.

It was indeed a marriage of convenience for it helped the TDP and the BJP alliance to come to power with some solid support from actor Pawan Kalyan. The alliance trounced both the Congress that failed to get even one Assembly seat and the fledgling YSRCP floated by Y. S. Jaganmohan Reddy, son of former Chief Minister Y. S. Rajasekhara Reddy.

Mr. Naidu’s calculation was simple: It is better to sail with a known pan-India ally, notwithstanding its saffron shade, and get as many benefits as possible for the State to lay solid foundation for possible return to power in 2019 elections. While going in for the alliance, he knew much before the general elections of 2014 that Mr. Modi will lead the NDA to power at Centre.

It was not the first time that both these parties have come together. The BJP and the TDP sailed together in 1998 when the latter extended outside support to the NDA paving the way for Atal Bihari Vajpayee to become Prime Minister. The TDP quit the NDA after losing in the elections 2004. At that time Mr. Naidu regretted supporting the BJP saying his party’s secular image took a beating and minorities moved away. Having lost two elections in 2004 and 2009, Mr. Naidu appeared desperate and got back into the NDA fold to face elections in 2014, the first one after bifurcation.

As part of the seat sharing arrangement, the TDP contested in 20 of the 25 Lok Sabha seats in the State while the BJP in five. In the Assembly which has 175 seats, the TDP contested 160 and left 15 for the BJP. But in the Lok Sabha elections, the TDP and the BJP won 16 and two respectively while the remaining seven went to the YSRCP. In the Assembly elections the TDP won 103, the BJP 4 and the YSRCP 66 while two went to independents.

In a way it was a dream start for the alliance with Mr. Modi accommodating every demand made by the State initially. The first one was merging of seven mandals (equivalent to tehsils) that were to be submerged by the Polavaram irrigation project, from Telangana to Andhra Pradesh to ensure that there was no inter-State row over it. The proposal was cleared in the first meeting the Modi Cabinet.

In October 2015, Mr. Modi came down to Vijayawada to lay the foundation stone for the State’s new capital, Amaravati, bringing with him soil from Parliament complex and a pot of water from Ganga. It was Mr. Naidu’s idea to have Amaravati filled with soil and water from across Andhra Pradesh and the national capital. But when Mr. Modi did not announce any big grant for the capital while addressing the huge gathering, the Opposition ridiculed it saying all that the PM gave was fistful of sand and a pail of water and nothing else.

That appeared to be a big disappointment as the A.P. Reorganisation Act clearly mentioned how the Centre should help the State in construction of the capital. Almost a year later, the Centre administered another shock when it made it clear publicly that the Special Category Status as promised by former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh was not possible as the 14th Finance Commission recommended discontinuance of such status. The relationship started showing signs of uneasiness as this was at a time when the SCS became a strong sentiment and the main Opposition YSRCP turned it into a big issue accusing the Naidu government of failing to get it for the State despite being a close ally of the BJP.

Mr. Naidu kept insisting for the SCS but the Centre appeared disinclined. The cracks between the two allies started appearing. After some backroom diplomacy, the Centre softened its stand and Union Finance Minister Arun Jaitley came up with an alternative mechanism to the SCS to compensate the State “to the last rupee” through a Special Assistance Measure (SAM) otherwise known as the special package. Mr. Jaitley made a big announcement of the SAM in September 2016. And Mr. Naidu did make some attempt to convince people that the SAM was equivalent to the SCS. By this time, other issues too piled up like bridging of the revenue deficit, a legacy of the bifurcation, which was put at ₹16,000 crore by the then Planning Commission.

The TDP government felt no major funds were released for the Polavaram project, though it was treated as national project and for the construction of capital. Though at regular intervals the Centre kept clarifying that there was steady flow of funds, including an arrangement with NABARD for the Polavaram project and ₹1,500 crore for the capital, the Andhra Pradesh government remained disappointed.

Mr. Naidu started saying he had to go to Delhi as many as 29 times to get such pending issues resolved. What appeared to have hurt him was the denial of appointment with the Prime Minister. He had to wait for over a year for an audience with him. And when he met him finally in January 2018 he submitted a representation.

It looked like the outstanding issues have been resolved and the differences between the two parties got narrowed down. But even after a month had passed by there was no forward movement. Meanwhile Mr. Jagan Mohan Reddy made the SCS a big issue again threatening to ask his MPs to resign and move a no confidence motion against the Modi government. The local Telugu channels started a campaign holding public debates on the SCS across the State. With just about a year away for general elections, the TDP felt the heat and was forced to back the SCS again.

Entering the arena of competitive politics with the YSRCP and the Congress, it started building pressure on the Centre to grant the SCS expecting it to walk that extra mile as an ally. The TDP expected the BJP to understand the people’s sentiments and take a political decision to grant the SCS. But with Mr. Jaitley almost snubbing by saying no to the SCS, the TDP had no option to ask the Ministers to quit.

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