Rahul Gandhi’s real test is not Gujarat, but these 4 big states facing polls in 2018

The battle for Gujarat is being touted as the litmus test for Rahul Gandhi, who is likely to be elected as the Congress president before the Assembly election in the state. When combined with Himachal Pradesh, a total of 250 Assembly seats are up for grabs in December.

While significance of Gujarat, in terms of the state being the home turf of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, cannot be ruled out, in terms of numbers, it is 2018 that will really test Rahul Gandhi’s leadership before the 2019 Lok Sabha election.

Four big states that account for 744 Assembly seats will go to polls next year, which include Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka and Chhattisgarh. The Congress’ performance in these states will set the tone for its 2019 Lok Sabha election campaign.

Rajasthan has traditionally seen rotation of power between the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the 200-seat Assembly.

That said, it will be difficult for Rahul Gandhi and the Congress to wrest power from the Vasundhara Raje-led BJP government following its rout in the last Assembly election where the Grand Old Party could barely get 21 seats.

Despite an extensive campaign by the Congress and its state chief Sachin Pilot, the party lost the Assembly bypoll in Dholpur in April this year. Bypolls to Lok Sabha seats of Ajmer and Alwar are scheduled in December and the Congress needs to register a win to boost its party cadre.

On the bright side, the Congress won 13 of the 26 seats in panchayat bypolls in September. However, with talks of Rahul Gandhi promoting young leadership in the party doing the rounds, Rajasthan Congress chief Sachin Pilot faces the challenge of ensuring a win for the party in Rajasthan next year.

MADHYA PRADESH

The Congress hopes that the anti-incumbency factor against three-time chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan works to its advantage in Madhya Pradesh which has a 230-member Assembly.

The party recently appointed Rahul Gandhi confidant Deepak Babaria as the AICC general secretary in-charge of Madhya Pradesh, replacing Mohan Prakash, in a bid to prepare the ground for the Assembly election next year.

The win in Chitrakoot Assembly bypoll also comes as a much-needed boost for the party. Yet, the biggest challenge for the Congress and Rahul Gandhi is to bring the faction-ridden state unit under one umbrella and motivate them to fight together in the election next year.

With Digvijaya Singh on a padyatra, the battle for state party reins boiled down to senior Congress leader Kamal Nath and Guna MP Jyotiraditya Scindia. The former, however, recently said that he has no problems with Scindia being announced as the chief ministerial face in the state.

Scindia, known to be a friend of Rahul Gandhi, is now tipped to be the Madhya Pradesh Congress chief and is likely to be projected as the party’s chief ministerial face. A win in Madhya Pradesh will silence Scindia’s critics and give Rahul more room to push young faces up in the organisation.

KARNATAKA

While the Siddaramaiah-led Congress government has been in power in Karnataka, the BJP and Amit Shah have already launched an aggressive campaign in the state ahead of the Assembly election next year which will be fought on 224 seats.

The BJP announced former chief minister B S Yeddyurappa as the chief ministerial face. The Congress, while announcing that the party will fight the next election under the leadership of Siddaramaiah, has stopped short of making an official announcement on its chief ministerial candidate.

BJP has appointed Union minister Prakash Javadekar as its poll in-charge in Karnataka, with Piyush Goyal as the co-incharge.

In a boost to the saffron party, Congress veteran and former Karnataka chief minister S M Krishna joined it in March. Krishna is considered an influential leader in the Vokkaliga community, one of the dominant castes in Karnataka.

With Amit Shah setting his sights on Karnataka, Rahul Gandhi and the Congress will ill-afford to take the state lightly.

CHHATTISGARH

It has always been a close contest between the Congress and the BJP in Chhattisgarh but victory has eluded the Grand Old Party for the last 14 years.

Like in Madhya Pradesh, the Congress is confident that anti-incumbency will work against the government of Raman Singh.

The party will further draw confidence from the fact that during the 2013 Assembly election, the difference in vote share between the BJP and the Congress was less than one per cent.

The BJP won 49 of the 90 Assembly seats with a vote share of 41.01 per cent, while the Congress got 39 seats with a vote share of 40.29 per cent.

While the Congress has repeatedly hit out at Chief Minister Raman Singh for alleged involvement in the multi-crore PDS scam, it remains to be seen if such attacks will prove enough to defeat the BJP in the next Assembly election.

Your Opinion Counts !